Climate change blog

Cleaning up at the end of a long two weeks

Craig Eason — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 08:59:13 +0000

Well, with the show now over, Copenhagen is trying to return to normal.

The world now has the ‘Copenhagen Accord’. http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/cop_15/application/pdf/cop15_cph_auv.pdf

This is a three page document where the heads of state present in Copenhagen agree to a range of rather straight forward facts such as agreeing climate change is one of the greatest challenges and a strong political will to do something about it.

There were a lot of words said and promises made but the impact of shipping? Well it seems the outcome could well be the IMO gets the chance to prove itself by default.

Paragraph 9 of the text reads

“To this end a high level panel will be established under the guidance of and accountable to the Conference of the Parties to study the contribution of the potential sources of revenue, including alternative sources of finance, towards meetng this goal”

earlier in the text there is reference to scaled up funding, which will amount to $30bn for the next three years which is ramped up to $100bn from the developed countries by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries.

There is mention of a Copenhagen Green Climate Fund which will be used as a financial operating entity to effectively administer the funds.

Are these two issues (assessing alternative sources of revenue and the climate fund) the indirect references to how shipping could be used as a source of revenue to help mitigation and adaptation to climate change?

Finally there is a call for an assessment of the implementation of the Copenhagen Accord to be completed by 2015, which could include strengthening measures to meet the increased challenge of stopping a 1.5 degree rise in temperature (the accord accepts the 2 degree rise as being the limiting factor).

It’s over to the IMO to prove its ability to put something meaningful in place before the end of 2014 – although the European Parliament has already said it could include shipping in its emissions trading scheme by 2012 if there has been no development on an international level by then.

This is the last post from COP15. We will be analysing the aftermath of Copenhagen in Lloyd’s List this week, looking both at what the IMO will now do moving forward and getting expert opinion on how the shipping industry is likely to be impacted.

Progress, but agreement?

Craig Eason — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 16:33:00 +0000

Talks went on until about 4am this morning over bunkers and a range of other topics that needed to be addresses such as agriculture, technology transfer, commitments etc.

Although Connie Hedegaard said the contact groups would reconvene later it appears they were not and the texts, most of which is in square brackets has been passed to the ministers. (Connie still presides over some of the work, just not the COP)

It is in their hands, though it could be a hot potato. However some interesting notes from sources:

The European Union’s desire for a 20% cut is in the bunker text [albeit in square brackets]

There are also points on carbon leakage.

There IS a consensus that the issues get pushed to the IMO and ICAO for development.

And a suggestion that there should be a report back to the UNFCCC in 2011.

But there was also no consensus on what should happen to the next.

It could be used in the text for a new protocol, but there has been no conclusion what to do with the text. The ministers are now deciding what to do…… the final decision is theirs and it might be made in the few minutes to midnight.

A clean viking lady

Craig Eason — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 22:44:20 +0000

I took the chance to go onboard Eidsvick Offshore’s new LNG powered supply vessel Viking Lady.
The vessel has had a prototype fuel cell put onboard. The fuel cell is in fact the most boring thing in the world to look at. A noiseless grey box the size of a container inside of which are two more grey boxes.
It took all the imagination of Wartsila, DNV,Eidsvick and MTU Online to soup up the story to make a container look sexy.
A long procession of dignatories were given the tour, and 50 lucky mayors were taken on a 2 hour trip to see Copenhagen’s wind farms in the freezing snow filled blustry day.
I hope the crew get time off for patiently putting up with hundreds of people traipsing around their home and work place.

Anything new on the table?

Craig Eason — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 22:28:28 +0000

Closed doors and more stress today. The media centre is more like a coral pen with all these heads of state demanding space and journalists subject to extra controls
The main poker game seems to have raised the pot up to $100bn but still a standoff for overall mitigation and adaptation. Could Sarkosy’s comments be the start of aswing towards an acceptance that the Kyoto Protocol can be extended rather than a new one written.
How would that impact bunkers which are outside the Kyoto Protocol?
In the bunker talks, one rumour has it that the remaining sticking point is the targets.

Richard Branson, hippies and ships

Craig Eason — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 05:34:12 +0000

AP Moller Maersk opened its doors last night to allow industry to meet with Jose Maria Figueres and Richard Branson, two co- founders of the oddly named Carbon War Room.
Hearing one shipping industry figure tell Branson that shipping was doing its bit already led to a suggestion from Branson that the organisation moves on to find another industry to focus on (The irony was not lost, as the group has said it will focus on aviation).
But after the high profile names were whisked out after quick interviews with the mainstream media (yours truly was the only trade press there) there was a general feeling of: What is this all about? What exactly is it going to achieve?
Given that those present are the technology innovators like Skysails and DK Group and the shipowners, it perhaps enhanced Nils Andersen’s comment that the NGO’s and other activists groups can shine a light on the good that shipping is doing, while helping the industry see what it has become blind to.
However I think one private comment to me from another owner brought it home.
“In the seventies I was a hippy. Now I am in charge of the company”.
Yes. The corporate hippies can come out of the green closet.

Poker chips and ships

Craig Eason — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 05:13:32 +0000

Connie Hedegaard’s resignation as president of the Copenhagen talks has been officially put down to protocol, as a minister, who is lower in the political pecking order, does not have the position to hold office over the now present heads of state for the high level segment of the talks.
But given the lack of signposting about the move there is suspicion that the general deadlock in the talks and the (developing world) accusations about recent Danish actions, may also have had something to do with her stepping down.
Bunker talks still remain unresolved. The fear is of a non IMO channelled outcome given Hedegaard’s earlier direct reference to a tax on shipping bunkers, although there is also talk of thing’s heading to the IMO as a result of the deadlock.
However the talks have distilled down to the three main elements:
1. If and how revenues should be used
2. How to over come the common but differentiated responsibilities.
3. If targets should be set.

But given these issues are in line with the bigger politically unanswered ones, the general consensus is that maritime bunkers has become a poker chip in the bigger game.

Barracading Bella, demonstrators to try a siege

Craig Eason — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 08:04:33 +0000

New protests are expected at the Bella centre this morning with reports that activists are to attempt to scale the fencing to gain access and cause disruption. Security has been stepped up and the queues are bigger. More and more police all over the place outside, and UN employed security inside.

In the Bella Centre the meetings are beginning to get into full swing. Given the lack of progress in finding a political compromise is attempting to disrupt the process further going to help?

Maersk chief executive: Raise bunker fuel prices

Craig Eason — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 07:49:26 +0000

AP Moller Maersk’s chief executive Nils Smedegaard Andersen took part in an open forum in the Bella Centre last night looking at the business vision for 2020.

Along with the Danish minister for economic and business affairs Lene Espersen and the award winning US author and columnist Thomas Friedman he gave his vision for 2020 and beyond.

“At the moment I have difficulties envisioning a world beyond 2020 where ships do not consume fossil fuels,” he said before an audience of hundreds of NGO representatives and mainstream press. ”They may be supplemented by other things, but the main fuel will still be fossil fuels.”

He then went on to say the best way to eradicate inefficient ships from the global fleet would be an increase in bunker fuel price. This he said would act globally and maintain a level playing field by putting an economic pressure on shipowners to economise fuel consumption and so reduce emissions.

While saying that Maersk will take the lead in developing environmentally sound shipping he said the company would not do it alone. If there is no level playing field Maersk would be forced to flag out to remain competitive.

Luckily for the Danish flag, Ms Espersen was on Maersk’s side. “”You can ask the big companies to lead the way, but you can not make them pay the whole bill,” she said.

Friedman pointed the finger at the USA. “The biggest problem is the USA without its innovation and then China hiding behind us.” He also pointed out the differences between China’s one party autocracy and USA’s one party democracy with its senate filled with denial of the problem.

Deadlock, but Connie has a vision

Craig Eason — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:29:56 +0000

The meeting on bunker fuels being led by Singapore and Norway has now ended. No development there. Smaller states with lower numbers in the delegations are not taking part as they should apparently, leaving it to larger delegation nations with a focus on maritime issues to lead the debate. So has this the danger of becoming something of an IMO committee meeting working group in all but name?

A day of celeberities: Arnie, Darryl Hannah ( yes, she of the mermaid fame) and Bianca Jagger. Now the ministerial conference opening is underway. Danish prime minister is repeating the warning of the challenge and danger of climate change.

On the podium this evening was Prince Charles, Ban Ki Moon and others for the opening of the high level conference. Tomorrow a procession of heads of state make their statements, no doubt telling us how important the issues are and how everyone must do more to find a deal, without saying what their own bit extra will be.

The president of COP Connie Hedegaard has expressed her wish list from this week and it includes a firm deal on international bunkers.

Still no breakthrough

Craig Eason — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:48:33 +0000

The ministerial closed discussions (focusing on marine fuels ) being led by Norway and Singapore have yet to yield concrete results. One insider has indicated the EU proposal is still on the table (the 20% cut on 2005 levels by 2020) although there is still the hope it will be cut.

Meanwhile Arnie’s in town. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the high profile governor of California is due to make a speech here in Copenhagen in short while.